Data-Driven Procurement Methods Protect Pharmacies From Price Volatility

Analysis reveals critical price volatility patterns affecting pharmacy inventory management.

The cost of pharmaceuticals in the US is a subject of intense scrutiny and complexity. For pharmacy procurement managers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), and policy makers, understanding not just the price but the stability of price is crucial for forecasting and budgeting.

This analysis utilized publicly available data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services NADAC survey across a 12-month analysis period (January through December 2025), observing more than 400,000 price records including 32,943 distinct NDC products. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to standardize volatility measurement across drugs ranging from pennies to thousands of dollars.

Key findings include that most generics cluster at CV 0.0–0.1, while extreme outliers likely align with shortages, single-source exposure, and API constraints. Large NADAC ranges (e.g., erythromycin 500 mg $2.02 to $8.22) can invert expected margins when reimbursement lags, converting dispenses into predictable per-unit losses.

Research and data analysis conducted on Antigravity IDE and Claude Sonnet 4.5.